• Just do your best and make the best of what happens
• Amor fati – have a loving acceptance of whatever happens

MM 2: The Unseen System

“Use this mental model to take a step back and stop focusing on individual elements and solutions.”

Mental Model: Systems Thinking

• Things in life are interrelated and affect each other – they are part of a large system
• The answer you’re seeking could be found elsewhere in a different part of the system you’re looking at
• You may be dealing with a proximate cause (symptoms of a problem) and not the actual root cause of the problem

MM 3: “Invert, always invert”

“Use this mental model to find an alternate path to the end goal you are seeking.”

Mental Model: Inversion

• Instead of asking how to get something, ask how to not get it’s opposite
• Ex: Instead of trying to succeed, just try not to fail
• This technique changes your perspective and can help you find creative solutions

MM 4: Lucking into Solutions

“Use this mental model to place yourself in the best position to learn more, solve problems, and seize opportunities.”

Mental Model: Luck Surface Area

• People that are “lucky” tend to have 3 personality traits: extroversion, openness, and low neuroticism. These traits make it more likely for them to be exposed to new opportunities and therefore have more “luck”

Chapter 2: Decision-Making

MM 5: Wear a Different Hat

“Use this mental model to inhabit different perspectives and approaches to making a decision.”

Mental Model: The Six Hats Method

• Each hat gives you a different perspective to finding a solution
• White Hat: Make sure you have enough information
• Red Hat: Think about how you feel about the options. What does your gut say? Why do you feel that way?
• Black Hat: Try to poke holes in your solutions and think about what can go wrong
• Yellow Hat: Think about all the great things that will result from each option
• Green Hat: Be creative about thinking about alternatives and different perspectives. Brainstorm other ideas.
• Blue Hat: Put all the information together that you’ve gained from the other hats. Weight the hats against each other.

MM 6: It’s a WRAP

“Use this mental model to foresee realistic sets of consequences and adjust accordingly.”

Mental Model: WRAP Method

• An approach to making better decisions
• Widen Your Options: Think about other solutions to your problem
• Reality-Test Your Assumptions: Carefully walk through your options and think about what will happen in the real world
• Attain Distance: Sleep on it. Wait for your emotions to subside (excitement, fear, etc.)
• Prepare To Be Wrong: Imagine that your wrong. Think about what you’ll do after.

MM 7: Process Versus Outcome

“Use this model to ensure that your decision process is unclouded by emotion, luck, coincidence, or serendipity.”

Mental Model: Outcome Bias; Do Not Fight The Last War

• Do not always repeat something just because it’s what worked last time
• The previous solution may not work in the new situation
• Ex: A poker player was aggressive last time and won. So they do it again with new players. But against these players this tactic is not good.
• Make sure you analyze each decision you’re making

MM 8: OODA Looping

“Use this mental model to take uncertainty and changing circumstances into account.”

Mental Model: The OODA Loop

• People that go through this loop faster will adapt to their situations faster than their opponents
• The loop never ends. You always need to be adapting.
• Observe: Observe yourself and the world around you
• Orient: Interpret and understand the information you gathered from observing
• Decide: Make a decision of the best course of action
• Action: Implement your decision

MM 9: Measuring Opportunity Cost

“Use this mental model to stop thinking about positive benefits and instead think in terms of sacrifice and opportunity cost.”

Mental Model: Opportunity Cost

• Every choice you make has consequences. One of those consequences is that you aren’t doing one of the other choices

Chapter 3: Clarity of Thought

MM 10: Real Risks

“Use this mental model to accurately assess and weigh risk factors rather than being emotionally influenced.”

Mental Model: Risk Assessment

• Think about actions by how risky they are
• Things that influence our risk assessment
  • Trust: If we trust something we feel like it’s less risky
  • Origin: If we created the risk we feel like it’s less risk – as opposed to someone else creating it
  • Control: If we feel like we have some control then we feel less risk
  • Nature: We perceive man-made things as more risky than natural things
  • Awareness: We feel more risk towards issues we are aware of than ones we aren’t
  • Uncertainty: We feel more risk when things are unknown
  • Scope: We feel more risk when things can have a larger impact
  • Hard to Understand: We feel more risk when we don’t understand it
  • Dread: We feel more risk when we feel dread towards something
  • Familiarity: We feel less risk when things are more familiar to us
  • Specificity: We feel more risk when it’s very specific
  • Personal Impact: We feel more risk if it impacts us personally
  • Fun Factor: We feel less risk if we think it will be fun
  • Age-Affected: We feel more risk if it affects younger people like kids

MM 11: Make Sure You’re Normal

“Use this mental model to understand what you are basing your assumptions and projections on.”

Mental Model: Normal Distribution

• Most things in life fall on a bell curve
• Ex: An outlier like a nobel prize winner might not be giving you the best advice for an average person
• Ex: The fact that a lot of people experience something means that you’ll probably experience it too
• Don’t put too much weight on outliers and use averages to make predictions

MM 12: Visualize Arguments

“Use this mental model to think critically and utilize better reasoning.”

Mental Model: Argument Mapping

• Make a visual representation of an argument to understand it better
• Basic components: Claim, Reasons, Objections, Conclusion

Chapter 4: The Reality Filter

MM 13: Kill Your Ego

“Use this mental model to remove emotional defense or offense from your decision-making process.”

Mental Model: Kill Your Ego

• Your ego can distort your thinking
• Your ego has defense mechanisms
  • Denial: You simply claim it to be false. Even if the evidence says otherwise
  • Rationalization: When you explain it away or justify it

MM 14: Distinguish the Map from the Territory

“Use this mental model (unironically) to understand the difference between reality and maps and models.”

Mental Model: The Map Is Not The Territory

• Recognize that a mental model, map, description, etc. are just representations. They are not the thing itself – reality might be different
• People create maps in order to simplify complexity
• Make sure you update your maps when presented with new information

MM 15: Metacognition

“Use this mental model to snap out of autopilot mode and get back to reality, your priorities, your what you want to achieve.”

Mental Model: Metacognition

• The ability to think about your own thinking – become aware of the functioning or your mind
• Adivce
  • Question everything you do
  • Think about what you don’t know
  • Consider things that go against what you believe
  • Think about worst-case scenarios
  • Think about how your emotions are affecting you
  • Recognize that your perspective of a situation isn’t the only one

MM 16: Perspective Isn’t Reality

“Use this mental model to step outside your own perspective and triangulate reality.”

Mental Model: Frame of Reference

• Everyone has a different way of viewing the world and everyone’s views are different.
• People have different ways of understanding things, different amounts of information, different experiences that influence decisions
• You’re perspective is just one out of many. It’s not special.
• Darwin’s Golden Rule: Whenever you find something that is contrary to your current beliefs, make sure to investigate it thoroughly