Introduction: The Super Thinking Journey

Mental Models: “…recurring concepts that help us explain, predict, or approach… seemingly disparate subjects”

Super Models: A subset of mental models that are broadly useful in everyday decision making and problem solving. They allow you to do super thinking.

Super Thinking: “…the ability to think better about the world – which you can use to your advantage to make better decisions…”

Super models allow you to grasp situations faster which allow you to bypass lower-level thinking and jump to higher-level thinking (super thinking). People that don’t use super models won’t be able to jump to high-level thinking as quickly or at all.

You need to apply the correct models to the specific situation you’re in. Learning to do this is a matter of trying to apply them and then learning from your successes and mistakes.

1 Being Wrong Less

Key Takeaway

• “To avoid mental traps, you must think more objectively. Try arguing from first principles, getting to root causes, and seeking out the third story.”
• “Realize that your intuitive interpretations of the world can often be wrong due to availability bias, fundamental attribution error, optimistic probability bias, and other related mental models that explain common errors in thinking.”
• “Use Ockham’s razor and Hanlon’s razor to begin investigating the simplest objective explanations. Then test your theories by de-risking your assumptions, avoiding premature optimization.”
• “Attempt to think gray in an effort to consistently avoid confirmation bias.”
• “Actively seek out other perspectives by including the Devil’s advocate position and bypassing the filter bubble. Consider the adage “You are what you eat.” You need to take in a variety of foods to be a healthy person. Likewise, taking in a variety of perspectives will help you become a super thinker.”

Mental Models

• Arguing From First Principles: Using the basic building blocks to develop conclusions instead of using assumptions and propositions that others have already built.
• Root Cause: Essentially it’s the “real” reason why something happend.
• Third Story: The perspective of an impartial observer on a conflict between two people.
• Availability Bias: You are biased by the information that is more available for you to encounter. That’s what is likely to be in your mind so it influences you.
• Fundamental Attribution Error: People tend to think that an explanation of a situation has more to do with the person’s personality than with the situation they were in.
• Optimistic Probability Bias: When you want something to happen so you’re too optimistic about the probability of success.
• Ockham’s Razor: When you have competing explanations that all work, you should start by choosing the simplest one.
• Hanlon’s Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by carelessness”
• De-Risking: Make something be less risky by testing it and seeing if it holds.
• Premature Optimization: When you try to optimize something too early – before knowing if it’s a good pursuit. If it’s bad then you have to throw out your work.
• Think Gray: Issues are almost never either black or white, they are almost always somewhere in the middle (gray).
• Confirmation Bias: We tend to focus on information that confirm’s our beliefs instead of properly evaluating information that goes against it.
• Devil’s Advocate Position: When you take an opposing side for the sake of argument.
• Filter Bubble: Companies try to present information (like ads) to you based on what you view and like. They filter out showing you things that they don’t think apply.
• Other Mental Models: Inverse Thinking, Unforced Error, Antifragile, Minimum Viable Product (MVP), Conjunction Fallacy, Overfitting, Frame of Reference, Framing, Nudging, Anchoring, Echo Chambers, Most Respectful Interpretation (MRI), Self-Serving Bias, Veil of Ignorance, Birth Lottery, Just World Hypothesis, Victim Blame, Learned Helplessness, Paradigm Shift, Semmelweis Reflex, Backfire Effect, Disconfirmation Bias, Cognitive Dissonance, Intuition, Proximate Cause, Postmortem, 5 Whys

2 Anything That Can Go Wrong, Will

Key Takeaways

• “In any situation where you can spot spillover effects (like a polluting factory), look for an externality (like bad health effects) lurking nearby. Fixing it will require intervention either by fiat (like government regulation) or by setting up a marketplace system according to the Coase theorem (like cap and trade).”
• “Public goods (like education) are particularly susceptible to the tragedy of the commons (like poor schools) via the free rider problem (like not paying taxes).”
• “Beware of situations with asymmetric information, as they can lead to principal-agent problems.”
• “Be careful when basing rewards on measurable incentives, because you are likely to cause unintended and undesirable behavior (Goodhart’s law).”
• “Short-termism can easily lead to the accumulation of technical debt and create disadvantageous path dependence; to counteract it, think about preserving optionality and keep in mind the precautionary principle.”
• “Internalize the distinction between irreversible and reversible decisions, and don’t let yourself succumb to analysis paralysis for the latter.”
• “Heed Murphy’s law!”

Mental Models

• Spillover Effects: When an action effects things that were not its main intention to affect
• Coase Theorem: Good and bad effects on a market will be resolved if three conditions are met: There are well-defined property rights, rational actors, and low transaction costs
• Public Goods: Goods that are publicly available to everyone to acquire.
• Tragedy of the Commons: When people do what they think is best for themselves but the total result of everyone doing this is a worse outcome for everyone.
• Free Rider Problem: When people take advantage of resources without earning them. If too many people do this then there will be a problem (tragedy of the commons).
• Asymmetric Information: When one side of a situation has different information than the other side. The information is not symmetrically distributed to both sides.
• Principal-Agent Problems: When the self-interest of an agent leads to different results than what the principal would have wanted
• Goodhart’s Law: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”
• Short-termism: When you focus on short-term results as opposed to long-term results
• Technical Debt: If you sacrifice making well-designed for moving faster then these small sacrifices will accumulate. It’s like debt in that you’ll eventually need to pay it down and clean everything up.
• Path Dependence: The decisions you have available to you are dependent on the decisions you’ve made in the past.
• Preserving Optionality: Making decisions that preserve the decisions you have available in the future.
• Precautionary Principle: When an action has the potential to cause an unknown amount of harm you should proceed with extreme caution.
• Irreversible Decisions: Decisions that cannot be undone. (Don’t sacrifice too much speed for analyzing the decision more.)
• Reversible Decisions: Decisions that can be undone. (Be very careful to analyze these a lot)
• Murphy’s Law: Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.
• Other Mental Models: Tyranny of Small decisions, Herd Immunity, Externalities, Cap-and-Trade Systems, Moral Hazard, Adverse Selection, Market Failure, Government Failure, Political Failure, Perverse Incentives, Cobra Effect, Streisand Effect, Hydra Effect, Observer Effect, Chilling Effect, Collateral Damage, Blowback, Boiling Frog, Information Overload, Analysis Paralysis, Perfect Is The Enemy of Good, Hick’s Law, Paradox of Choice, Decision Fatigue

3 Spend Your Time Wisely

Key Takeaways

• “Choose activities to work on based on their relevance to your north star.”
• “Focus your time on just one of these truly important activities at a time (no multitasking!), making it the top idea on your mind.”
• “Select between options based on opportunity cost models.”
• “Use the Pareto principle to find the 80/20 in any activity and increase your leverage at every turn.”
• “Recognize when you’ve hit diminishing returns and avoid negative returns.”
• “Use commitment and the default effect to avoid present bias, and periodic evaluations to avoid loss aversion and the sunk-cost fallacy.”
• “Look for shortcuts via existing design patterns, tools, or clever algorithms. Consider whether you can reframe the problem.”

Mental Models

• North Star: A guiding vision for something where actions are aligned with going towards it.
• Multitasking: Working on two activities at the same time which causes your brain to context switch between and not perform optimally.
• Top Idea on Your Mind: While working on other tasks your brain will subconsciously work on whatever is the most pressing or important task/idea in your mind.
• Opportunity Cost: The cost of choosing one option instead of another. By choosing one opportunity you lose the value of the option you didn’t choose.
• Pareto Principle: For many situations, 80% of the results are due to only 20% of the actions.
• Leverage: Situations where applying a force or effort can produce large results. When choosing between activities that require similar effort you may want to choose the one that will give you the largest result. Or when choosing between activities that have results of the same magnitude you may want to choose the one that requires the least amount of effort.
• Diminishing Returns: Situations where your results tend to decrease as you put in more effort.
• Negative Returns: When doing something actually makes the situation worse – you get negative results due to your actions.
• Commitment: “It is, quite simply, our nearly obsessive desire to be (and to appear) consistent with what we have already done. Once we have made a choice or taken a stand, we will encounter personal and interpersonal pressures to behave consistently with that commitment.” – Robert Cialdini
• Default Effect: The fact that many people end up accepting whatever the default option is.
• Present Bias: People tend to over value near-term rewards over making progress towards reaching a long term reward.
• Sunk-Cost Fallacy: The costs that you’ve already invested into something make you want to stay with it even though going with a different option might be better. It clouds your judgment.
• Design Patterns: Reusable solutions to a problem.
• Algorithms: Step-by-step processes.
• Reframe the Problem: Look at the problem from a different perspective.
• Other Mental Models: Compound Interest, Two-Front Wars, Deep Work, Eisenhower Decision Matrix, Sayre’s Law, Bike-shedding, Opportunity Cost of Capital, Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA), High-Leverage Activities, Power Law Distribution, Law of Diminishing Utility, Burnout, Discount Rate, Discounted Cash Flow, Net Present Value (NPV), Hyperbolic Discounting, Parkinson’s Law, Hofstadter’s Law, Loss Aversion, Anti-Pattern, Brute Force, Heuristic, Black Boxes, Automation, Economies of Scale, Parallel Processing, Divide and Conquer, Social Engineering

4 Becoming One with Nature

Key Takeaways

• “Adopt an experimental mindset, looking for opportunities to run experiments and apply the scientific method wherever possible.”
• “Respect inertia: create or join healthy flywheels; avoid strategy taxes and trying to enact change in high-inertia situations unless you have a tactical advantage such as discovery of a catalyst and a lot of potential energy.”
• “When enacting change, think deeply about how to reach critical mass and how you will navigate the technology adoption life cycle.”
• “Use forcing functions to grease the wheels for change.”
• “Actively cultivate your luck surface area and put in work needed to not be subsumed by entropy.”
• “When faced with what appears to be a zero-sum or black-and-white situation, look for additional options and ultimately for a win-win.”

Mental Models

• Scientific Method: A method of making observations, hypothesis, tests, data analysis, and new theories. Adopt the experimental mindset.
• Inertia: Resistance to change.
• Flywheels: Something that takes a lot of effort initially but becomes easier to maintain once it starts going.
• Strategy Taxes: When an organization adopts a strategy it can be difficult to switch to a new strategy later – that’s the tax you have to pay for choosing the strategy.
• Catalyst: Something that increases the rate of a chemical reaction.
• Potential Energy: “…the stored energy of an object, which has the potential to be released.”
• Critical Mass: An accumulation of something that will cause a major change in the system once it reaches a specific threshold.
• Technology Adoption Life Cycle: A life cycle that describes the adoption of an idea or technology. It goes in the order of innovations (2.5%), early adopters (13.5%), early majority (34%), late majority (34%), and laggards (16%).
• Forcing Functions: A task that forces you to take a certain action that will have a specific result.
• Luck Surface Area: You increase your potential for getting lucky by increasing the amount you interact with people in diverse situations.
• Entropy: The amount of disorder that’s in a system.
• Zero-Sum Situation: Situations where if one group gains the other must lose so the net gain is zero.
• Black-and-White Situation: Things usually don’t fall into one of two categories. Life is too complex – it’s gray.
• Win-Win: Situations where both groups gain
• Other Mental Models: Natural Selection, Shirky Principle, Lindy Effect, Peak, Momentum, homeostasis, Center of Gravity, Activation Energy, Chain Reaction, Tipping Point, S Curves, Network Effects, Metcalfe’s Law, Cascading Failure, Butterfly Effect, 2×2 Matrices, Polarity, In-Group Favoritism, Out-Group Bias

5 Lise, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Key Takeaways

• “Avoid succumbing to the gambler’s fallacy or the base rate fallacy.”
• “Anecdotal evidence and correlations you see in data are good hypothesis generators, but correlation does not imply causation—you still need to rely on well-designed experiments to draw strong conclusions.”
• “Look for tried-and-true experimental designs, such as randomized controlled experiments or A/B testing, that show statistical significance.”
• “The normal distribution is particularly useful in experimental analysis due to the central limit theorem. Recall that in a normal distribution, about 68 percent of values fall within one standard deviation, and 95 percent within two.”
• “Any isolated experiment can result in a false positive or a false negative and can also be biased by myriad factors, most commonly selection bias, response bias, and survivorship bias.”
• “Replication increases confidence in results, so start by looking for a systematic review and/or meta-analysis when researching an area.”
• “Always keep in mind that when dealing with uncertainty, the values you see reported or calculate yourself are uncertain themselves, and that you should seek out and report values with error bars!”

Mental Models

• Gambler’s Fallacy: When people tend to think that previous results will effect their next results even though the events are independent.
• Base Rate Fallacy: When determining the likelihood of something people tend to focus on the events that just occurred and do not factor in the base rate (the natural probability of something happening).
• Anecdotal Evidence: Factual claims that rely only on personal observations.
• Hypothesis: A proposed explanation for something.
• Correlation Does Not Imply Causation: Two events the appear to be correlated does not mean that one of them caused the other.
• Randomized Controlled Experiments: An experiment where participants are randomly assigned to a control group (don’t receive the treatment) and the experimental group (receive the treatment).
• A/B Testing: When two variants of the same product are tested in order to see which one performs better.
• Statistical Significance: Something is statistically significant when it is very likely that there is a relationship between two things and it’s not due to chance or an outlier.
• Normal Distribution: A distribution where most of the data is around the mean and there is less data as you move farther away from the mean in both directions.
• Central Limit Theorem: If you take many samples sets out of a dataset and average each of the sample sets, then the new values will create a normal distribution.
• False Positive: When the result states positive but it’s not actually positive.
• False Negative: When the result states negative but it’s not actually negative.
• Selection Bias: When the subjects chosen for an experiment are biased by the selector. They should be randomly selected.
• Response Bias: When cognitive biases cause participants to give answers that are not accurate.
• Survivorship Bias: When we tend to focus on things that pass a selection process and forget to consider the things that didn’t make it past.
• Systematic Review: A comprehensive and systematic way to evaluate a research questions by using all the research available rather than a small amount of data.
• Meta-Analysis: Using technique that combines the results from many scientific studies.
• Error Bars: A visual way to represent the range of values that you think a data point will be in on a graph.
• Other Mental Models: Confounding Factor, Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, Observer-Expectancy Bias, Placebo Effect, Proxy, Noresponse Bias, Law of Large Numbers, Clustering Illusion, Regression to the Mean, Mean, Median, Mode, Variance, Standard Deviation, Probability Distribution, Confidence Interval, Conditional Probability, Bayes’ Theorem, Frequentist, Bayesian, Power, Null Hypothesis, P-Value, Replication Crisis, Data Dredging, Publication Bias

6 Decisions, Decisions

Key Takeaways

• “When tempted to use a pro-con list, consider upgrading to a cost-benefit analysis or decision tree as appropriate.”
• “When making any quantitative assessment, run a sensitivity analysis across inputs to uncover key drivers and appreciate where you may need to seek greater accuracy in your assumptions. Pay close attention to any discount rate used.”
• “Beware of black swan events and unknown unknowns. Use systems thinking and scenario analysis to more systematically uncover them and assess their impact.”
• “For really complex systems or decision spaces, consider simulations to help you better assess what may happen under different scenarios.”
• “Watch out for blind spots that arise from groupthink. Consider divergent and lateral thinking techniques when working with groups, including seeking more diverse points of view.”
• “Strive to understand the global optimum in any system and look for decisions that move you closer to it.”

Mental Models

• Pro-Con List: Where you list all of the positive things and list all the negative things, and then weigh them against each other. This is not the best technique because some items could be more significant than others but people tend to look at the amount of items in each list.
• Cost-Benefit Analysis: An approach to weighing the benefits of something versus the costs of it
• Decision Tree: A diagram used to analyze multiple decisions. Each branch of tree is a different decisions you make and the ends of all the branches are all the possible outcomes.
• Sensitivity Analysis: A technique to measure how sensitive a model is to input parameters. One parameter may have a greater effect than another.
• Discount Rate: The rate used to discount future cash flows. Over time they will become less and less.
• Black Swan Events: Extreme events that have a higher probability of happening that you might expect.
• Unknown Unknowns: Unknown Unknowns are what we don’t know that we don’t know. Known Unknowns are when we know that we don’t know something.
• Systems Thinking: When you try to think about the entire system instead of just a single component of it.
• Scenario Analysis: Analyzing possible future scenarios by thinking about the probability of them occurring and their consequences.
• Simulations: When a computer attempts to model a real life situation.
• Groupthink: In a group people tend to think in the same ways because they strive to get along.
• Divergent Thinking: When you try to make your thinking go in different directions than the obvious ways in order to think of new things.
• Lateral Thinking: Thinking in ways that move you to new areas and to use things in your thoughts that are not immediately obvious.
• Global Optimum: The best solution in the entire system. (As opposed to the local optimum which is the best solution that’s close to you – easy to get to)
• Other Mental Models: Grass-Is-Greener Mentality, Maslow’s Hammer, Inflation, Garbage In Garbage Out, Expected Value, Utility Values, utilitarianism, Fat-Tailed Distributions, Chatlier’s Principle, Hysteresis, Monte Carlo Simulation, Local Optimum, Thought Experiment, Counterfactual Thinking, Bandwagon Effect, Convergent Thinking, Crowdsource, Prediction Market, Superforecasters, Business Case

7 Dealing with Conflict

Key Takeaways

• “Analyze conflict situations through a game-theory lens. Look to see if your situation is analogous to common situations like the prisoner’s dilemma, ultimatum game, or war of attrition.”
• “Consider how you can convince others to join your side by being more persuasive through the use of influence models like reciprocity, commitment, liking, social proof, scarcity, and authority. And watch out for how they are being used on you, especially through dark patterns.”
• “Think about how a situation is being framed and whether there is a way to frame it that better communicates your point of view, such as social norms versus market norms, distributive justice versus procedural justice, or an appeal to emotion.”
• “Try to avoid direct conflict because it can have uncertain consequences. Remember there are often alternatives that can lead to more productive outcomes. If diplomacy fails, consider deterrence and containment strategies.”
• “If a conflict situation is not in your favor, try to change the game, possibly using guerrilla warfare and punching-above-your-weight tactics.”
• “Be aware of how generals always fight the last war, and know your best exit strategy.”

Mental Models

• Prisoner’s Dilemma: A situation in game theory that shows why two individuals won’t cooperate even though it’s in their best interest to do so. Each prisoner can get a reduced sentence if the give up the other one but if they work together then they will get no sentence. Each prisoner doesn’t know what the other will do so they might give the other one up.
• Ultimatum Game: A game that illustrates how people factor in fairness to negotiations. For example, if the person that received some money offers to split it unevenly with another person then the other person may not accept any of it.
• War of Attrition: A battle where both sides’ resources are being depleted. The side that doesn’t run out of resources first will win. You want to have more resources than them or lose yours less quickly.
• Reciprocity: “…we try to repay, in kind, what another person has provided us.” – Robert Cialdini
• Commitment: “It is, quite simply, our nearly obsessive desire to be (and to appear) consistent with what we have already done. Once we have made a choice or taken a stand, we will encounter personal and interpersonal pressures to behave consistently with that commitment.” – Robert Cialdini
• Liking: “…we most prefer to say yes to the request of someone we know and like.” – Robert Cialdini
• Social Proof: “…one means we use to determine what is correct is to find out what other people think is correct. The principle applies especially to the way we decide what constitutes correct behavior. We view a behavior as more correct in a given situation to the degree that we see others performing it.” – Robert Cialdini
• Scarcity: “…opportunities seem more valuable to us when their availability is limited.” – Robert Cialdini
• Authority: People are more obedient towards people they view as authority figures
• Dark Patterns: Patterns and techniques people use in order to trick you into doing something you didn’t want to do.
• Social Norms: The social norm is a person’s tendency to view things from the perspective of how tit impacts them socially (is this the right thing to do?).
• Market Norms: The market norm is a person’s tendency to view things from the perspective of how it will impact their financial situation (will it get me more money?).
• Distributive Justice: People think that things should be distributed evenly because it’s more fair.
• Procedural Justice: People think that things are fair as long as you are following the procedures in place.
• Appeal to Emotion: Attempting to influence someone by manipulating their emotions.
• Deterrence: Something that will deter another from performing a certain action.
• Containment: An attempt to contain something so that you prevent further damage.
• Guerrilla Warfare: A type of warfare using small, agile tactics that a large force will struggle to contend with.
• Punching-Above-Your-Weight: When you take on someone that is stronger and more powerful than you.
• Generals Always Fight the Last War: Generals tend to use things that worked for them in the last war they won but what was useful in the last war may not be useful for this one.
• Best Exit Strategy: The strategy you will use to exit a situation.
• Other Mental Models: Arms Race, Game Theory, Nash Equilibrium, Tit-For-Tat, Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD), Straw Man, Adhominem, Trojan Horse, Bait and Switch, Potemkin Village, Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), Carrot-and-Stick, Stop the Bleeding, Quarantine, Flypaper Theory, Domino Effect, Slipper Slope Argument, Broken Windows Theory, Gateway Drug Theory, Loss Leader Strategy, Appeasement, Red Line, Nuclear Option, Zero-Tolerance Policy, Call Your Bluff, Hollow Victory, Endgame, Hail Mary Pass, Burn the Boats

8 Unlocking People’s Potential

Key Takeaways

• “People are not interchangeable. They come from a variety of backgrounds and with a varied set of personalities, strengths, and goals. To be the best manager, you must manage to the person, accounting for each individual’s unique set of characteristics and current challenges.”
• “Craft unique roles that amplify each individual’s strengths and motivations. Avoid the Peter principle by promoting people only to roles in which they can succeed.”
• “Properly delineate roles and responsibilities using the model of DRI (directly responsible individual).”
• “People need coaching to reach their full potential, especially at new roles. Deliberate practice is the most effective way to help people scale new learning curves. Use the consequence-conviction matrix to look for learning opportunities, and use radical candor within one-on-ones to deliver constructive feedback.”
• “When trying new things, watch out for common psychological failure modes like impostor syndrome and the Dunning-Kruger effect.”
• “Actively define group culture and consistently engage in winning hearts and minds toward your desired culture and associated vision.”
• “If you can set people up for success in the right roles and well-defined culture, then you can create the environment for 10x teams to emerge.”

Mental Models

• Manage to the Person: All people are different so what works for managing one employee may not work for another one.
• Peter Principle: Employees tend to get promoted to their level of incompetence. At every level they are good at their job so they get promoted. Eventually they are in a position they are not good at so they don’t get promoted and are stuck there.
• DRI (Directly Responsible Individual): A person who is decided to be the person responsible for a certain task. If the task isn’t completed it isn’t anyone else’s fault but his.
• Deliberate Practice: A form of practice where you methodically push your limits and get feedback in order to improve rapidly.
• Consequence-Conviction Matrix: A matrix that helps leaders determine if they should really be the one handling a task or if it’s one that they can delegate for someone else to do.
• Radical Candor: Giving someone feedback that both challenges them to improve while also caring for them personally.
• One-On-Ones: A meeting with your manager to get feedback from employees on a regular basis. This forces them to make the time and improve.
• Imposter Syndrome: When someone feels they don’t deserve to be in the situation that they are and that they fear being found out by the others in the situation.
• Dunning-Kruger Effect: When you first learn something you feel confident because you learn the big ideas quickly. Then you get discouraged when you realize how much there is to learn. And finally your confidence grows as you put in the effort and get closer to becoming an expert.
• Culture: “Culture describes the common beliefs, behavioral patterns, and social norms of group members.” – Gabriel Weinberg
• Winning Hearts and Minds: Making appeals to the hearts and minds of people is a good way to win them over.
• 10x Teams: A team that is able to produce much more results (10 times as much) than an average team.
• Other Mental Models: Joy’s Law, 10x Engineer, Introverts, Extroverts, Nature versus Nurture, IQ (Intelligent Quotient), EQ (Emotional Quotient), Generalists, Specialists, Commandos Infantry and Police, Foxes versus Hedgehogs, Strategy, Tactics, Institutional Knowledge, Unicorn Candidate, Bystander Effect, Power Vacuum, Spacing Effect, Fixed Mindset, Growth Mindset, Pygmalion Effect, Golem Effect, Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, Hindsight Bias, High-Context Communication, Low-Context Communication, Loyalists versus Mercenaries, Manager’s Schedule versus Maker’s Schedule, Dunbar’s Number, The Mythical Man-MonthBoots on the Ground

9 Flex Your Market Power

Key Takeaways

• “Find a secret and build your career or organization around it, searching via customer development for product/market fit (or another “fit” relevant to the situation).”
• “Strive to be like a heat-seeking missile in your search for product/market fit, deftly navigating the idea maze. Look for signs of hitting a resonant frequency for validation.”
• “If you can’t find any bright spots in what you’re doing after some time, critically evaluate your position and consider a pivot.”
• “Build a moat around yourself and your organization to create sustainable competitive advantage.”
• “Don’t get complacent; remember only the paranoid survive, and keep on the lookout for disruptive innovations, particularly those with a high probability of crossing the chasm.”

Mental Models

• Secret: A piece of information that you know is important but other people don’t know about or don’t realize their importance.
• Customer Development: When you look at everything you do through the eyes of the customer. You are always thinking about them and often you get a lot of feedback from them throughout the entire development process.
• Product/Market Fit: How well a product fits a specific market. A good product market fit means that the market has a high demand for the product.
• Heat-Seeking Missile: You need to be constantly collecting information and adjusting so that you can change your direction to successfully hit your goal.
• Idea Maze: Going from an idea to a successful outcome is like traveling through a maze – there are a lot of dead ends and you need to navigate it to find the end.
• Resonant Frequency: When the perfect conditions are met for something to happen.
• Bright Spots: An area that looks very promising for you to work towards. For example, there may be a small group of people that really like what you’re doing with your company, so you should focus on them.
• Pivot: A change in strategic direction.
• Moat: Things that protect yourself from your competition. (Ex: Patents, a brand, in house technology).
• Sustainable Competitive Advantage: Factors that give you an advantage over a long period of time.
• Only the Paranoid Survive: Only people that are always evaluating and planning for worst case scenarios will survive. People that become comfortable and stop worrying about what to do next will fail.
• Disruptive Innovations: When a new technology alters the existing processes in an industry.
• Crossing the Chasm: The chasm is the gab between some early adopters using your services and everyone using your services. Earlier adopters are people that naturally like to tinker with things. The early majority are people that need it to actually be good and useful.
• Other Mental Models: Arbitrage, Market Power, Consensus-Contrarian Matrix, Why Now?, Simultaneous Invention, First-Mover Advantage, First-Mover Disadvantage, OODA Loop (Observe Orient Decide Act), Jobs to be Done, What Type of Customer Are You Hunting?, Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation, Personas, Beachhead, Lock-In, Switching Costs, Barriers to Entry, Barriers to Exit, Regulatory Capture, Winner-Take-Most Markets, Only The Paranoid Survive

Conclusion

Key Takeaways

• “You don’t want to be a cargo-cult super thinker, using mental models without really understanding them, and therefore not getting their benefits.”
• “The good news is that the mental models in this book will expand your circle of competence“

Mental Models

• Cargo-Cult: When you try to imitate something but you don’t really understand how it works so you don’t do it correctly.
• Circle of Competence: The idea that there are a lot of things that people are good at in life. However you are only capable of becoming good a subset of them and you are only actually good at a subset of that.